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The World Trade Organization Forecasts Moderate Trade Growth In 2015/2016

World Trade

Open Eyes Opinion {source: WTO

Trade Statistics and Outlook

 Modest trade recovery to continue in 2015 and 2016 following three years of weak expansion


  • World merchandise trade is forecast to grow 3.3% in 2015 in volume terms as output picks up slightly in both developed and developing countries.
  • Trade growth should accelerate to 4.0% in 2016, still below the average of 5.1% since 1990, and well below the pre-crisis average of 6.0%.
  • Trade volume growth has been very slow in recent years, measuring 2.8% in 2014 and averaging 2.4% over the last three years.
  • Exports of developing countries grew faster than those of developed countriesin 2014, 3.3% vs. 2.2%.
  • Meanwhile, imports of developing countries grew more slowly, 2.0% compared with 3.2%.
  • The 50% drop in oil prices since July should boost incomes and imports in energy intensive economies (including developed countries and China) while reducing them in fuel exporters.
  • Numerous downside risks to the forecast exist including geopolitical tensions, divergent monetary policies, exchange rate fluctuations and slower growth in emerging economies.

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